A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
